tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Sacramento via Chicago: arrives on time 21%

  1. 16:15 BNA → 17:50 MDW
    WN 2241 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 27% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 MDW → 21:20 SMF
    WN 2897 · Southwest · 4h 25m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip7h 05mBNA 16:15 to SMF 21:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.