tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 13%

  1. 16:15 BNA → 17:50 MDW
    WN 2241 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 27% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MDW → 21:00 DTW
    WN 4200 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 54% on time, 7.1% cancelled

Total trip 3h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (7.1% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip3h 47mBNA 16:15 to DTW 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.