tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 19%

  1. 16:15 BNA → 17:50 MDW
    WN 2241 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 27% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 MDW → 21:50 PHL
    WN 4263 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 51% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip4h 40mBNA 16:15 to PHL 21:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.