tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Portland via Chicago: arrives on time 20%

  1. 16:15 BNA → 17:50 MDW
    WN 2241 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 27% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 MDW → 22:10 PWM
    WN 4272 · Southwest · 2h 18m · 53% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 58mBNA 16:15 to PWM 22:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.