tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Tucson via Las Vegas: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:35 SEA → 20:15 LAS
    WN 2267 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 45m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 LAS → 23:28 TUS
    WN 354 · Southwest · 1h 28m · 56% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 60 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 45m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 53mSEA 17:35 to TUS 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.