tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Santa Barbara via Las Vegas: arrives on time 44%

  1. 18:40 PHX → 19:45 LAS
    WN 2281 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 16% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 25m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:10 LAS → 23:32 SBA
    WN 373 · Southwest · 1h 22m · 48% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 100 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 25m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip4h 52mPHX 18:40 to SBA 23:32, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.