tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Seattle via Las Vegas: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:30 MCI → 16:35 LAS
    WN 2286 · Southwest · 3h 05m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:25 LAS → 20:10 SEA
    WN 1192 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip6h 40mMCI 15:30 to SEA 20:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.