tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 21%

  1. 17:55 ATL → 18:55 MDW
    WN 232 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 48% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 MDW → 21:55 SDF
    WN 4597 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 70% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection33%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 67% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (33%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 02mATL 17:55 to SDF 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.