tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Tulsa via Chicago: arrives on time 15%

  1. 19:35 ATL → 20:30 MDW
    WN 233 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 31% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 23:15 TUL
    WN 2912 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 52% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection31%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 69% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (31%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip4h 45mATL 19:35 to TUL 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.