Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Atlanta → Sacramento via Chicago: arrives on time 20%
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19:35 ATL → 20:30 MDWWN 233 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 31% on time, 0.0% cancelled
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1h 20m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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21:50 MDW → 00:20 SMF +1 dayWN 4121 · Southwest · 4h 25m · 42% on time, 3.5% cancelled
Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip7h 40mATL 19:35 to SMF 00:20, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.