tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Sacramento via San Diego: arrives on time 5%

  1. 18:55 LAS → 20:10 SAN
    WN 2330 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 28% on time, 4.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 SAN → 22:45 SMF
    WN 3551 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 34% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection15%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 85% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time5%First flight not cancelled (4.9% are) × connection made (15%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (34%).
Total trip3h 45mLAS 18:55 to SMF 22:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.