tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Oakland via San Diego: arrives on time 7%

  1. 18:55 LAS → 20:10 SAN
    WN 2330 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 28% on time, 4.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in San Diego (SAN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 SAN → 22:35 OAK
    WN 4841 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection15%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 85% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time7%First flight not cancelled (4.9% are) × connection made (15%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip3h 40mLAS 18:55 to OAK 22:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.