tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Chicago via Sacramento: arrives on time 48%

  1. 21:10 LAS → 22:45 SMF
    WN 2362 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 51% on time, 4.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:50 SMF → 05:45 MDW +1 day
    WN 3802 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 91% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (4.1% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip6h 35mLAS 21:10 to MDW 05:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.