tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Chicago via Las Vegas: arrives on time 41%

  1. 09:00 OAK → 10:30 LAS
    WN 2374 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:20 LAS → 16:50 MDW
    WN 4506 · Southwest · 3h 30m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 50mOAK 09:00 to MDW 16:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.