tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → New Orleans via Nashville: arrives on time 16%

  1. 17:30 LGA → 19:25 BNA
    WN 2448 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 53% on time, 19.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:15 BNA → 21:50 MSY
    WN 4475 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (19.0% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 20mLGA 17:30 to MSY 21:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.