tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Denver: arrives on time 20%

  1. 16:50 LGA → 19:30 DEN
    WN 2456 · Southwest · 4h 40m · 41% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 DEN → 21:55 SNA
    WN 744 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip8h 05mLGA 16:50 to SNA 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.