tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Sacramento via Denver: arrives on time 5%

  1. 14:45 PDX → 18:20 DEN
    WN 2519 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 51% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:25 DEN → 20:55 SMF
    WN 136 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 9% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time5%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (9%).
Total trip6h 10mPDX 14:45 to SMF 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.