tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 32%

  1. 07:10 MDW → 08:45 PHX
    WN 2520 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 88% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:55 PHX → 12:00 SFO
    WN 4603 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 36% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip6h 50mMDW 07:10 to SFO 12:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.