tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Sacramento via Phoenix: arrives on time 68%

  1. 07:10 MDW → 08:45 PHX
    WN 2520 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 88% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:35 PHX → 11:30 SMF
    WN 781 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip6h 20mMDW 07:10 to SMF 11:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.