tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Sacramento via Denver: arrives on time 6%

  1. 16:15 MCI → 17:05 DEN
    WN 2549 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 20m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:25 DEN → 20:55 SMF
    WN 136 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 9% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 95 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 20m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (9%).
Total trip6h 40mMCI 16:15 to SMF 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.