tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kansas City → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 21%

  1. 14:10 MCI → 15:35 MDW
    WN 2572 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 48% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:35 MDW → 18:15 PHX
    WN 2861 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Kansas City). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip6h 05mMCI 14:10 to PHX 18:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.