tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Chicago via Nashville: arrives on time 18%

  1. 13:05 AUS → 15:10 BNA
    WN 258 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 61% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:15 BNA → 17:50 MDW
    WN 2241 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 27% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip4h 45mAUS 13:05 to MDW 17:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.