tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Detroit via Nashville: arrives on time 18%

  1. 16:30 AUS → 18:40 BNA
    WN 259 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 39% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 BNA → 22:30 DTW
    WN 509 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 43% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip4h 55mAUS 16:30 to DTW 22:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.