tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas → Chicago via Baltimore: arrives on time 26%

  1. 11:40 DAL → 15:35 BWI
    WN 2595 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 56% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:28 BWI → 17:32 MDW
    WN 997 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 66% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 53mDAL 11:40 to MDW 17:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.