tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Oakland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 40%

  1. 16:45 MCO → 18:45 LAS
    WN 2648 · Southwest · 4h 55m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 LAS → 21:20 OAK
    WN 4270 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip7h 40mMCO 16:45 to OAK 21:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.