tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Seattle via Denver: arrives on time 24%

  1. 09:55 MDW → 11:30 DEN
    WN 2654 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 68% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:30 DEN → 14:25 SEA
    WN 4130 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 37% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip6h 30mMDW 09:55 to SEA 14:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.