tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Bozeman via Denver: arrives on time 31%

  1. 09:55 MDW → 11:30 DEN
    WN 2654 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 68% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:30 DEN → 14:10 BZN
    WN 4219 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 47% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip5h 15mMDW 09:55 to BZN 14:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.