tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Rochester via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 15:40 MCO → 17:30 MDW
    WN 2658 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 60% on time, 4.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MDW → 21:25 ROC
    WN 2878 · Southwest · 1h 38m · 40% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (4.1% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip5h 48mMCO 15:40 to ROC 21:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.