tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 18%

  1. 18:55 MCO → 20:50 MDW
    WN 2660 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 38% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 MDW → 23:35 PHX
    WN 3219 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 48% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip7h 40mMCO 18:55 to PHX 23:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.