tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Sacramento via Chicago: arrives on time 15%

  1. 18:55 MCO → 20:50 MDW
    WN 2660 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 38% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 MDW → 00:20 SMF +1 day
    WN 4121 · Southwest · 4h 25m · 42% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection38%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 62% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (38%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip8h 20mMCO 18:55 to SMF 00:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.