tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Seattle via Chicago: arrives on time 24%

  1. 18:55 MCO → 20:50 MDW
    WN 2660 · Southwest · 2h 55m · 38% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 MDW → 00:30 SEA +1 day
    WN 4144 · Southwest · 4h 30m · 57% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip8h 35mMCO 18:55 to SEA 00:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.