tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → San Jose via Phoenix: arrives on time 13%

  1. 19:10 MCO → 20:45 PHX
    WN 2681 · Southwest · 4h 35m · 66% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 PHX → 23:25 SJC
    WN 2357 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 30% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (30%).
Total trip7h 15mMCO 19:10 to SJC 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.