tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Tampa via Baltimore: arrives on time 55%

  1. 21:10 SFO → 05:25 BWI
    WN 2683 · Southwest · 5h 15m · 43% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:45 BWI → 09:10 TPA +1 day
    WN 1119 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip9h 00mSFO 21:10 to TPA 09:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.