tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 16%

  1. 16:05 TUL → 17:50 MDW
    WN 2717 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 56% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 MDW → 20:10 BNA
    WN 1073 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 50% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 05mTUL 16:05 to BNA 20:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.