tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 05:00 PHX → 10:20 MDW
    WN 2723 · Southwest · 3h 20m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:15 MDW → 14:00 DCA
    WN 1294 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 00mPHX 05:00 to DCA 14:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.