tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 58%

  1. 05:15 SMF → 11:10 MDW
    WN 2728 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 93% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:00 MDW → 14:50 BWI
    WN 2744 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 73% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection82%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 18% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (82%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 35mSMF 05:15 to BWI 14:50, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.