tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Richmond via Nashville: arrives on time 19%

  1. 11:20 MDW → 12:45 BNA
    WN 2733 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:50 BNA → 16:30 RIC
    WN 4530 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (32%).
Total trip4h 10mMDW 11:20 to RIC 16:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.