tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Phoenix via Baltimore: arrives on time 35%

  1. 12:00 MDW → 14:50 BWI
    WN 2744 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 73% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:45 BWI → 17:35 PHX
    WN 1050 · Southwest · 4h 50m · 61% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 35mMDW 12:00 to PHX 17:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.