tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Buffalo via Baltimore: arrives on time 40%

  1. 19:00 MDW → 21:55 BWI
    WN 2745 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 66% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:55 BWI → 00:15 BUF +1 day
    WN 4577 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 68% on time, 6.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (6.1% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 10mMDW 19:00 to BUF 00:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.