tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:20 PHL → 18:30 MDW
    WN 2756 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 48% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 MDW → 21:55 SDF
    WN 4597 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 70% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 37mPHL 17:20 to SDF 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.