tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tampa via Dallas: arrives on time 16%

  1. 16:20 MDW → 18:35 DAL
    WN 2758 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 52% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 DAL → 23:15 TPA
    WN 1417 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip5h 50mMDW 16:20 to TPA 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.