tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Las Vegas via Washington: arrives on time 10%

  1. 12:45 MDW → 15:35 DCA
    WN 2761 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 75% on time, 7.1% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:25 DCA → 18:30 LAS
    WN 978 · Southwest · 5h 05m · 19% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (7.1% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (19%).
Total trip7h 45mMDW 12:45 to LAS 18:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.