tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Phoenix via Denver: arrives on time 16%

  1. 16:15 MDW → 18:00 DEN
    WN 2769 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 62% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 DEN → 19:50 PHX
    WN 1683 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip5h 40mMDW 16:15 to PHX 19:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.