tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Nashville via Houston: arrives on time 33%

  1. 17:40 MDW → 20:15 HOU
    WN 2785 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 56% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Houston (HOU) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:05 HOU → 23:00 BNA
    WN 1958 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 79% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 20mMDW 17:40 to BNA 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.