tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Oakland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 44%

  1. 14:18 MDW → 16:12 LAS
    WN 2795 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 71% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:10 LAS → 18:45 OAK
    WN 2286 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 27mMDW 14:18 to OAK 18:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.