tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Jose via Las Vegas: arrives on time 42%

  1. 14:18 MDW → 16:12 LAS
    WN 2795 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 71% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 03m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 LAS → 20:45 SJC
    WN 3865 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 138 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 03m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip8h 27mMDW 14:18 to SJC 20:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.