tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Jose via Las Vegas: arrives on time 51%

  1. 16:55 MDW → 18:45 LAS
    WN 2797 · Southwest · 3h 50m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 LAS → 21:40 SJC
    WN 2352 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 70% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 45mMDW 16:55 to SJC 21:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.