tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Francisco via Las Vegas: arrives on time 12%

  1. 16:55 MDW → 18:45 LAS
    WN 2797 · Southwest · 3h 50m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 LAS → 21:35 SFO
    WN 4397 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 17% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time12%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (17%).
Total trip6h 40mMDW 16:55 to SFO 21:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.