tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Denver via New York: arrives on time 11%

  1. 12:55 MDW → 16:00 LGA
    WN 2803 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 52% on time, 8.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:50 LGA → 19:30 DEN
    WN 2456 · Southwest · 4h 40m · 41% on time, 8.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (8.0% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (8.6% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip7h 35mMDW 12:55 to DEN 19:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.