tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → New Orleans via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 05:30 SEA → 11:25 MDW
    WN 2810 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 100% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:25 MDW → 16:40 MSY
    WN 3743 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 30% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 135 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 00m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (30%).
Total trip9h 10mSEA 05:30 to MSY 16:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.